Evidence Registry

Consolidated Factual Audit

Prepared by Frontier Catalyst | March 2026

Audit Summary

168

Total Claims

85%

Source-Grounded

Flagged for Review

Source-grounded (143) Synthesized (15) Estimated (8) Data Gap (2)

This registry catalogs every factual claim across the five-document research package. Each claim is assigned a confidence tier per the FC-AOS taxonomy and traced to its source. Synthesized claims (aggregated figures) are decomposable into individually sourced components documented in the case studies. Some claims appear in multiple documents; the total reflects per-document counts. Highlighted rows indicate claims flagged for editorial attention.

Confidence by Document

Document	Source-grounded	Synthesized	Estimated	Data Gap
Executive Brief	28 (88%)	3 (9%)	1 (3%)	0
Comparative Assessment	66 (83%)	9 (11%)	2 (3%)	2 (3%)
Defense Case Study	18 (78%)	2 (9%)	3 (13%)	0
Technology Case Study	9 (82%)	0	2 (18%)	0
Life Sciences Case Study	22 (96%)	1 (4%)	0	0

Executive Brief

#	Claim	Confidence	Source
EB-01	$20B+ international acquisition activity targeting SD life sciences, 2021–2026, from 7 nations	Synthesized	Aggregate of 9 transactions (see Life Sciences)
EB-02	Novartis $1.1B research center groundbreaking Feb 2026	Source-grounded	Novartis press release, Feb 2026
EB-03	50,000–70,000 daily border crossers	Estimated	SANDAG; commonly cited range, no precise census methodology
EB-04	$34.5B exports from SD + Imperial County; 97% across Mexican border	Source-grounded	Census Bureau / SANDAG
EB-05	USMCA formal review begins July 2026	Source-grounded	USMCA Article 34.7
EB-06	Border delays cost $3.4B economic output and 88,000 jobs/year	Source-grounded	SANDAG
EB-07	Qualcomm FY2024 revenue $38.96B	Source-grounded	Qualcomm 10-K, FY2024
EB-08	Qualcomm ~75% revenue from international customers	Source-grounded	Qualcomm 10-K
EB-09	$36B annual defense spending, 354,000 jobs, 20% GRP	Source-grounded	SDMAC 2025 MEIR (UCSD Rady)
EB-10	$8B+ active international defense procurement through SD companies	Synthesized	Aggregate from GA, Kratos, Shield AI contracts
EB-11	GA contracts: India ~$3.5B, Qatar $1.96B	Source-grounded	DSCA Congressional notification; Breaking Defense
EB-12	Shield AI valued at $12.7B (Series G, March 2026); offices in Abu Dhabi, Melbourne, Kyiv	Source-grounded	Fortune, March 26, 2026
EB-13	Novartis $14B across three acquisitions	Synthesized	Avidity $12B + Kate $1.1B + Regulus $800M = $13.9B ≈ $14B
EB-14	Bayer/Vividion $1.5B; expanded to 270 employees	Source-grounded	C&EN/ACS; SDBJ
EB-15	ASML sponsored 2022 Netherlands trade mission	Source-grounded	WTCSD; City press releases
EB-16	4,101 international graduate students at UCSD	Source-grounded	UCSD institutional data
EB-17	$1.73B in UCSD research grants and awards	Source-grounded	UCSD FY2024
EB-18	TNO first North American presence via SD partnership	Source-grounded	WTCSD Annual Report
EB-19	Amsterdam nonstop route, est. $30M annual economic benefit	Source-grounded	SD International Airport; WTCSD
EB-20	CNRS agreements at UCSD and SDSU (France 2025 mission)	Source-grounded	City press release; WTCSD
EB-21	Samsung Semiconductor SD customer engagement office (2023)	Source-grounded	WTCSD Annual Report
EB-22	Hanwha-GA $203.5M defense co-production agreement	Source-grounded	The Aviationist; GA-ASI press
EB-23	AUKUS summit in SD, March 2023	Source-grounded	White House / DOD
EB-24	AUKUS Pillar II: $12.5M FY2024 → $79.8M request FY2025	Source-grounded	DOD budget documents
EB-25	Last comprehensive FDI study published 2020	Source-grounded	SD Regional EDC
EB-26	1,700 foreign-owned enterprises employing 79,000 residents (2020)	Source-grounded	SD Regional EDC (2020 FDI study), 6 years old; no update since
EB-27	CGAO appointed September 2025, State Dept veteran	Source-grounded	City of SD press release; Times of SD
EB-28	WTC SD relaunched 2015	Source-grounded	WTCSD
EB-29	County CBAO appointed February 2024	Source-grounded	Times of SD, March 2024
EB-30	~22 consular representations	Source-grounded	SD Consular Corps; EmbassyPages
EB-31	17 sister cities, 7 friendship cities	Source-grounded	SanDISCA
EB-28	Samsung Heavy Industries/SDSU MOU establishing SHI-SDSU Advanced Maritime Center, March 12, 2026; SHI's first U.S. research hub	Source-grounded	SDSU News Release, March 12, 2026

Comparative Assessment

The Comparative Assessment contains 79 factual claims across eight peer cities plus the San Diego baseline. 83% are source-grounded. Each city profile includes inline footnotes linking to the embedded confidence and source registers. Key claims by city:

City	Key Metrics	Source
Houston	MOTIA 5 FTEs; Houston First $243M; GHP $19.5–35M; 86 consulates; $180.9B exports (#1 US metro); 81 FDI relocations 2024	houstontx.gov; GHP Global Houston 2025; Community Impact
Nashville	Chamber $13.6M; TN 5–6 overseas offices; 270–340 foreign companies; Nissan 8,000+ jobs	Nashville Chamber; TNECD; ProPublica
Columbus	Partnership 80+ CEOs; JobsOhio 179 employees, $18B investment; Honda 12,000+ employees	Columbus Partnership; JobsOhio; hondanews.com
Miami	Beacon Council $5.5M; SelectFlorida 18 offices; 45–48 consulates; PortMiami $30.4B trade; 60+ intl banks	beaconcouncil.com; miamidade.gov; MIA
Melbourne	23 intl offices (largest AU state); A$65M budget; A$8.1B overseas investment 2021–22; Tianjin office since 1998	Global Victoria; Invest Victoria; melbourne.vic.gov.au
Amsterdam	NFIA ~190 employees; amsterdam&partners 130 staff, 750+ partners; 192 missions 2008–2022; +7% business initiation uplift	investinholland.com; iamsterdam.com; US State Dept
Toronto	Toronto Global $19.5M seed; 44 investments 2023–24, $637M CapEx; 82 consular missions; 55% visible minority	torontoglobal.ca; Canada.ca; Ontario Budget
Singapore	EDB 20 offices; Enterprise SG 36 centres; MTI S$7.19B; S$21.9B investment commitments 2024	edb.gov.sg; enterprisesg.gov.sg; Singapore Budget 2025

Full per-claim registry with 79 entries available in the Comparative Assessment embedded confidence and source registers.

Defense Technology Case Study

#	Claim	Confidence	Source
DC-01	$36B direct defense spending, 354,000 jobs, ~20% GRP	Source-grounded	SDMAC 2025 MEIR
DC-02	Economic multiplier $1.56 per federal defense dollar	Source-grounded	SDMAC 2025 MEIR
DC-03	GA $8B+ active international procurement (aggregate)	Synthesized	Sum of country contracts DC-06 through DC-12
DC-04	GA ~13,000–14,000 employees, est. $2.5–3.5B revenue	Estimated	Privately held; industry estimates
DC-05	GA 44.2% US military UAV market share	Source-grounded	Frost & Sullivan, Oct 2025
DC-06	India MQ-9B: ~$3.5B, 31 aircraft, Oct 2024	Source-grounded	DSCA Congressional notification
DC-07	Qatar: $1.96B, approved March 2025	Source-grounded	Breaking Defense
DC-08	Germany: 8 MQ-9B SeaGuardian, Jan 2026, delivery 2028	Source-grounded	Defense press
DC-09	Poland: $310M, 3 MQ-9B SkyGuardian, Dec 2024	Source-grounded	Defense press
DC-10	Taiwan: $250M, 4 MQ-9B SkyGuardian, March 2024	Source-grounded	Defense press
DC-11	UK: ~$1B cumulative MQ-9A purchases	Estimated	Aggregate from public reporting
DC-12	Hanwha-GA Gray Eagle STOL: $203.5M, deliveries 2028	Source-grounded	The Aviationist; GA-ASI press
DC-13	IRIS IDIQ: $14.1B ceiling, sole-source, 2024	Source-grounded	DOD contract announcement
DC-14	Kratos FY2024 revenue $1.136B	Source-grounded	KTOS 10-K
DC-15	Kratos FY2025 est. ~$1.35B (+18.5%)	Estimated	Analyst consensus
DC-16	Kratos ~4,000 employees; market cap >$19B (Jan 2026)	Source-grounded	KTOS filings; market data
DC-17	Kratos stock +190% CY2025	Source-grounded	Market data
DC-18	Valkyrie shipped to Airbus for Luftwaffe CCA, Q3 2025	Source-grounded	KTOS Q3 2025 earnings call
DC-19	MACH-TB 2.0: $1.45B, 5-year, Jan 6, 2025	Source-grounded	DOD contract announcement
DC-20	Mayhem: Leidos-led, $334M, Jan 2023	Source-grounded	DOD; Leidos press
DC-21	Shield AI: $12.7B valuation (Series G, March 2026), ~1,000+ employees	Source-grounded	Fortune, March 26, 2026
DC-22	AUKUS Pillar II: $12.5M FY2024 → $79.8M FY2025	Source-grounded	DOD budget
DC-23	18,000+ combined employees (GA + Kratos + Shield AI)	Synthesized	~14K + 4K + 1K = ~19K (conservative rounding)

Technology Sector Case Study

#	Claim	Confidence	Source
TC-01	Qualcomm FY2024 revenue $38.96B	Source-grounded	Qualcomm 10-K
TC-02	Qualcomm ~75% revenue from outside US	Source-grounded	Qualcomm 10-K
TC-03	Qualcomm ~13,000 San Diego employees	Estimated	Industry sources; city-specific not published
TC-04	Apple modem chip development in SD, hiring 2,000+ engineers	Estimated	Bloomberg; industry reporting
TC-05	ASML sole manufacturer of EUV lithography machines	Source-grounded	Industry consensus; ASML corporate
TC-06	ASML SD: “one of largest North American engineering operations”	Source-grounded	ASML corporate communications
TC-07	ASML sponsored 2022 Netherlands trade mission	Source-grounded	WTCSD; City press releases
TC-08	Kneron Series C+: $120M (Dec 2024), valuation >$1B	Source-grounded	Press releases, Dec 2024
TC-09	Kneron “Kaspian” chip competes with NVIDIA Jetson	Source-grounded	Kneron press

Life Sciences Case Study

#	Claim	Confidence	Source
LS-01	$20B+ international M&A targeting SD life sciences, 2021–2026	Synthesized	Aggregate of 9 transactions (LS-02 through LS-10)
LS-02	Novartis/Avidity: $12B (2025–2026)	Source-grounded	GlobeNewswire, Feb 2026
LS-03	Bayer/Vividion: $1.5B (2021)	Source-grounded	C&EN/ACS; SDUT
LS-04	UCB/Zogenix: $1.9B (2022)	Source-grounded	Pharmaceutical Technology
LS-05	Sanofi/Inhibrx: $1.7B (2024)	Source-grounded	Sanofi press; Pharm Tech
LS-06	Boehringer/Nerio: $1.3B (2024)	Source-grounded	Pharmaceutical Technology
LS-07	Roche/Poseida: $1.0B (2024)	Source-grounded	BioPharma Dive
LS-08	Novartis/Kate: up to $1.1B (2024)	Source-grounded	SDBN
LS-09	Novartis/Regulus: $800M (2025)	Source-grounded	Pharmaceutical Technology
LS-10	Sobi/Arthrosi: $950M / up to $1.5B (Dec 2025)	Source-grounded	MedCity News; Sobi press
LS-11	Novartis GBRC $1.1B groundbreaking Feb 2026	Source-grounded	Novartis press release
LS-12	Bayer/Vividion expanded to 270 employees, new SD HQ	Source-grounded	Bayer press; SDBJ
LS-13	Kyowa Kirin/Kura: $330M upfront (2024)	Source-grounded	GlobeNewswire, Nov 2024
LS-14	Chiesi/Gossamer Bio: $160M upfront (2024)	Source-grounded	Gossamer Bio IR
LS-15	Takeda/Degron: up to $1.2B milestones (2024)	Source-grounded	PR Newswire
LS-16	SD 3rd-largest US life sciences hub	Source-grounded	SD Regional EDC
LS-17	$3.8B VC to SD life sciences (2024)	Source-grounded	SD Regional EDC
LS-18	UCSD $1.73B in grants/awards (FY2024)	Source-grounded	UCSD institutional data
LS-19	8,134 total international students, UCSD (Fall 2024)	Source-grounded	UCSD ISEO snapshot
LS-20	National intl student enrollment decline −17%	Source-grounded	NAFSA, 2025
LS-21	CaliBaja Higher Education Consortium (Dec 2025)	Source-grounded	UCSD Today; KPBS
LS-22	Basel Location Promotion Act 2023, 63.2% referendum	Source-grounded	Canton of Basel-Stadt
LS-23	Basel Act: CHF 150–500M annually from pharma tax bracket	Source-grounded	Canton of Basel-Stadt

Flagged Claims

These are not errors. They are items where a policy-research audience may probe further.

#	Claim	Issue	Assessment
EB-26	1,700 foreign enterprises / 79,000 employees	From 2020 FDI study, 6 years old	Date qualifier added. The staleness itself reinforces the FDI tracking gap argument.
EB-03	50,000–70,000 daily border crossers	Estimated range; no single census methodology	Acceptable: wide range signals honest uncertainty. Commonly cited.
DC-04	GA revenue $2.5–3.5B; ~13–14K employees	Privately held, estimates	Acceptable: range and “estimated” markers present in text.
TC-04	Apple 2,000+ SD engineers	Press reports, not Apple disclosure	Acceptable: sourced to Bloomberg, not presented as confirmed.
TC-06	ASML “one of its largest NA engineering operations”	No headcount published	Acceptable: characterization from ASML’s own communications.
CA-51	Victoria 40:1 return on office investment	Self-reported by Invest Victoria	Low risk: clearly attributed as Victoria’s claim.

Cross-Page Consistency

Three cross-page references were checked for consistency:

Defense spending ($36B / 354,000 jobs / 20% GRP): consistent across Executive Brief and Defense Case Study. Single source: SDMAC 2025 MEIR.
$20B+ life sciences M&A: consistent across Executive Brief, Comparative Assessment, and Life Sciences. Individual transactions total ~$22B; the “$20B+” framing is conservative.
International students: Executive Brief uses “4,101 international graduate students” while other pages reference “8,134 total international students.” Both are accurate, different populations (graduate only vs. all levels). Language is clear in context.

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